Trend extrapolation of domestic air travel demand in Nigeria (2018-2030)

Document Type: Research Paper

Authors

Department of Transport Management Technology, Federal University of Technology, Akure. P. M. B. 704, Akure, Nigeria.

Abstract

Trend analysis of domestic air travel demand in Nigeria was examined based on yearly passenger demand from 2010 to 2017. Ordinary Least Square (OLS) regression was used to forecast for twelve years (2018 to 2030) demand for domestic air passenger travel in Nigeria. The demand for domestic air passenger in Nigeria from year 2010 to 2017 was compared with the forecast. There seems to be periods of fluctuations in the demand for domestic air passenger travel in Nigeria from year 2010 to 2017 which are expected to have effect on the forecast of domestic air travel. Calculation and computation reveals that the coefficient of determination R2 is 0.203 which signifies a high error term such that the explanation level is very low; hence the prediction or forecast is unreliable. Despite the decline in the forecast of domestic air passenger demand in the future, and the fact that the forecast is unreliable, hence inconclusive as shown from the coefficient of determination, government agencies should be sensitive to the forecast and try to adopt new policies and strategies that will improve the demand for domestic air passenger travel in Nigeria.

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